Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Not A Silver Lining After All

The Journal has this to say about credit default swaps:
“If you are looking for a silver lining in these findings, it seems that most institutions think we are currently in the most dangerous period for global financial-services firms,” Feenstra said. “Perhaps if the markets can make it through the next six months, the level of pessimism may begin to subside.”

I never expected to see the Friedman Unit make its appearance in financial commentary. I thought it applied exclusively to foreign affairs. Its use in this context implies that it is appropriate for measuring the progress of all manner of debacles.

The salient point here is that "most institutions" are barely competent at judging the risk on their own balance sheets. I for one do not expect them to be any more skilled at judging risk for the market as a whole. At any rate, if we are in fact in the most dangerous period for the market, doesn't that imply that a crash in equities is imminent? Don't hold your breath waiting to hear that from the Journal.