Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Worser and Worser

The Conference Board has found that consumers are more parsimonious then ever:

The Consumer Confidence Index measured by the Conference Board, a private research group, fell to 38 in December from a revised 44.7 in November. That is its lowest point since the group began compiling the index in 1967, and below the previous low of 38.8 in October. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected the index to rise incrementally to 45.

This is no surprise when you consider how home prices keep dropping:

Home prices posted another record decline in October, falling 18% compared with a year earlier, according to a closely watched report released Tuesday.

The 20-city S&P Case-Shiller index has posted losses for a staggering 27 months in a row. In October, 14 of the 20 cities set fresh price decline records.

The U.S. economy is getting worser and worser.

My wild guess that the S&P 500 will drop to 500 sometime in 2009 is looking better and better. Today's jump of 2.4% means nothing to me. I'm staying short SPY.

Nota bene: Anthony J. Alfidi holds uncovered short calls on SPY.