Thursday, March 19, 2009

Transportation Stocks Getting Bogged Down

Some transportation stocks are considered to be bellwethers for the larger U.S. economy. The two I've seen most frequently mentioned are FedEx (FDX) and Union Pacific (UNP); the first for its importance to B2B delivery, the second for its tonnage capacity.

FedEx is having some rough times, failing to beat the Street's expectations:

FedEx says its fiscal third-quarter profit tumbled 75 percent as severe weakness in the global economy offset the benefit of lower fuel prices.


Union Pacific's troubles are common to the entire railroad industry:

Since the end of February, Union Pacific, the largest railway by revenues, has announced that traffic was down still further – 19 per cent – for the first week of March, against the equivalent week of 2008.

Announcing the gloomy February figures, John Gray, senior vice-president of the AAR, made a plea for the industry to be granted some of the economic stimulus funds being spent by the new US administration.


Given their momentary weakness, are either of these stocks right for my Alpha-D Portfolio? FDX's five-year EPS growth rate is a pathetic 5.65%, far below its industry average. UNP still carries way too much long term debt (far more than 2x net income) and has a five-year ROE of only 10.77%.

No thanks. These stocks are getting beaten down for good reason. I will not go long FDX or UNP.