Monday, March 16, 2009

Yet Another Ridiculous Rally, and Why It Pays to Stay Away From AIG

Markets are up so far this Monday, which flies in the face of even more bad economic news:

Industrial production fell in February for the fourth consecutive month as auto cutbacks and collapsing exports hurt the broader U.S. economy.

Output at factories, mines and utilities dropped 1.4 percent last month, more than forecast, after a revised 1.9 decline in January, the Federal Reserve said today in Washington. The amount of factory capacity in use slumped to 70.9 percent, matching the lowest level on record.

The news is worse than expected, and yet the stock market performs better than expected. Mr. Market is as schizoid as ever.

On a side note . . . today a friend asked me what I thought of AIG. I told him that it no longer makes any sense to think of it as an operating company; it is instead a conduit for bailout money to counterparty banks that would otherwise be insolvent.

Nota bene: Anthony J. Alfidi is short uncovered calls on SPY; he holds no position whatsoever in AIG.