Thursday, June 25, 2009

Economy Better? Don't Hold Your Breath

At fist glance, the economy's contraction seems to be abating:

The revised reading on gross domestic product, released Thursday by the Commerce
Department, showed the economy from January through March didn't fall as deeply as the 5.7 percent annualized decline reported a month ago. Economists expected the government would stick with its previous estimate.


Revisions have tended to be on the downside since 2007, so an upward revision is a positive sign. It's still only a plus of 0.2%. That's not much to crow about.

Analysts (not me) who have claimed that improvements in unemployment statistics happen after an economy turns will have fodder for their argument now:

The number of Americans filing new jobless claims jumped unexpectedly last week, and the total unemployment benefit rolls rose to more than 6.7 million.


I remain unmoved by the above reports. Conditions should worsen once the full force of defaults on credit card debt and commercial real estate insolvency hit later this year.

Nota bene: Anthony J. Alfidi is short uncovered calls on SPY and IWM in expectation of further economic pain.