Saturday, August 01, 2009

Feel The Pain Of 2008's Revised Data

If this doesn't convince the average equity analyst that the data inputs for their models have a serious upside bias, then nothing will. New numbers show just how bad off we all are:


The world’s largest economy contracted 1.9 percent from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the last three months of 2008, compared with the 0.8 percent drop previously on the books, the Commerce Department said yesterday in Washington. Gross domestic product has shrunk 3.9 percent in the past year, the report said, indicating the worst slump since the Great Depression.


The real pain will begin later this year when the federal stimulus money starts to run out. We will discover to our chagrin that very little of the money we've spent went to things like high-speed rail, solar panel arrays, or other stuff that might actually generate revenue for more than a quarter or two.

We'll be seeing a lot less of happy stories like this one about winning streaks in the stock market.

Nota bene: Anthony J. Alfidi is short uncovered calls on SPY and IWM because these disappointing results will eventually be reflected in falling stock prices.