Monday, November 02, 2009

Dollar Weakness Driving U.S. Manufacturing?

Declines in consumer spending haven't curtailed growth in manufacturing output:

Manufacturing in the U.S. expanded in October at the fastest pace in more than three years, a sign that factories will be the main drivers of the economic recovery in coming months.


The article uses tortured logic to ascribe the jump in manufacturing to stimulus spending. The claim that "rising sales led to a record plunge in stockpiles" contradicts the data showing the inventory index rising to 46.9 from 42.5; that number indicates that stockpiles are rising, not plunging. Maybe the plunge claim refers to data from earlier in the year.

I can only hypothesize that a weaker U.S. dollar is making U.S.-made goods cheaper in foreign markets. Let's see some trade data to confirm whether U.S. exports are rising, as indicated by the rise to 55.5 from 55 in their gauge of export orders.

Let's not forget that manufacturing comprises only about 12% of U.S. GDP. Any growth there is welcome if it makes us a nation of builders and producers once again.